Politico: Albania Probably Won't Join before 2025

According to an op-ed in Politico of Ryan Heath, Albania is "the least screwed-up country" in the Western Balkans intending to join the EU. He sets the chances of Albania joining the EU at 80%, but not before 2025.

Pros: Albania has shown an ability to deliver bipartisan reforms and is “the least screwed-up country” in the Western Balkans, according to a diplomat active in the region. The country largely avoided the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, allowing it distance from the problems of other EU applicants in the region.

Cons: Formal negotiations have not yet started, and corruption and organized crime remain serious problems, according to the European Commission. The Commission has also criticized the politicization of Albania’s courts.